John’s Commentary – Dec 20 2018

December 20th, 2018|

42% of NYSE stocks hit a 52-week low today [so far!]. With stocks down more than 2%, many semiconductor companies are up. And with stocks this quarter and this month down significantly against bonds, there will be a very large institutional re-allocation from bonds/cash to equities around year-end. The equity market should be bought.

John’s Commentary – Dec 17 2018

December 17th, 2018|

Wheaton Precious Metals WPM, my top choice in precious metals, had a nice 14% advance on Friday based on resolution of a tax dispute with Canada. I would not chase the stock now, but [...]

John’s Commentary – Dec 14 2018

December 14th, 2018|

The market has gone nowhere since my return to positive on the market. Down 480 on the DJIA, today is interesting. Persistently weak sectors such as financials, Russell 2000 small caps, and the transports are not leading the market down. I believe this indicates this may be the last downward test for the market for the time being.

John’s Commentary – Dec 13 2018

December 13th, 2018|

The farm bill passed by the U.S. Congress yesterday federally legalized a huge portion of the cannabinoid market - the portion that most interests a broad cross-section of consumer products companies. Hemp-derived CBD-based products are now legal nationwide.

John’s Commentary – Dec 12 2018

December 12th, 2018|

The market has done a round-trip up and down since my last NOTE. The stand-out area among recommended issues was cloud/big-data. At the other end of the spectrum, oils - even our high-production-growth oils - lagged.

John’s Commentary – Nov 21 2018

November 21st, 2018|

Now is the time that I would want a portfolio to be more-or-less fully-invested in equities [according to each portfolio’s normal definition of such a position]. If the market does go lower, I expect that the decline would mostly be felt by big, popular “tech” stocks whose future prospects are now gathering doubt.

John’s Commentary – Nov 14 2018

November 14th, 2018|

Writing this midday with the S&P 500 down 21 at 2701, I have been contemplating whether to venture forth to make a fool of myself by putting in writing my best guess that this decline may be over. There are still more new lows by a fair percentage, but the absolute difference between new lows and highs is not huge and could flip.

John’s Commentary – Nov 12 2018

November 12th, 2018|

The tone of the market has improved markedly in this last week. One has the sense that a more sustained rally will emerge soon - perhaps today, perhaps after a larger downdraft to recent lows.